Faisal’s Tobril

Or the way I see it

When political analysis goes bad…

Posted by Faisal on August 29, 2006

So Hassan Nasrallah comes out on television and says that he did not expect the magnitude of Israel’s response and that if he knew that so much destruction would ensue, he would not have kidnapped the two soldiers.

Okay.

Does that make the Israeli attacks, in terms of size and magnitude, and the destruction they caused in Lebanon acceptable now? Certainly not!

Apparently though, to Big Pharoah, this implies that Nasrallah and all those who supported the war do not think. It also means, again to Big Pharoah, that Nasrallah is trying to “whitewash his tarnished image in lebanon”.

What’s up with you people? So let’s say you thought that Hizbullah cast the first stone, and a mistake was made (Utterly ridiculous of course, but it goes to show…), now that the whole thing is over and Nasrallah becomes one of the first of this generation’s leaders who have chosen to enter an armed confrontation, that speaks out and says his estimates were incorrect.

This says two things to me: The main is a shrewd politician and he knows he has unbelievable popular support from the people whose support he needs.

In this Israeli-Hizbollah war, I have clearly and obviously sided with Hizbollah. Why? Well, let’s put it this way. Israel, as a state and government, doesn’t deserve to exist. Why? Well, the minutest of reasons would be their clear and obvious disdain towards the words Justice and Peace. They haven’t abided by international law ever since their declaration of their State and it seems they don’t plan to do so anytime soon.

I think anyone who doesn’t support Hizbollah on this, even if they are anti-islamist, and chooses to take sides while spouting things like “Hizbollah needs to go but Israel was too tough” can be placed in the same category as our beloved President. Why? Because they all come up with statements like: How can we expect Israel to abide by International Laws and Agreements if we do not do so ourselves?

I seeeeee.

So you’re saying that after almost fourty years of not abiding by International Laws and Agreements, Israel was ready to fully withdraw from the West Bank & Gaza. But, shame on them, Hizbollah’s move made this impossible, and now they will never do it, and it’s all Hizbollah’s fault.

Grow up, will you.

It doesn’t take someone with the analytical abilities of a ten-year old to figure out that statements like these are complete and utter nonsense. If a schoolmate has been picking on you for the past three years, and remains more powerful than you are, with stronger friends than the cowards that hang around you, and continues beating you up, every now and then, for years… chances are, the next time he see you, he’ll beat you up.

The fact that the school tells him this isn’t right, but do nothing about it, and he completely disregards what they’ve been “ordering” or instructing him to do for the those past 4 years… is a pretty solid indicator that he will continue to ignore those orders/instructions.

Like I said, it doesn’t take a ten-year old to figure that one out.

When you hit the son of a bitch, unexpectedly, or when you cause him enough pain (where it hurts) the next time he sees you and your friends… be sure that he will think twice about beating you up again. Also be sure that “again” won’t be anytime soon.

That is why I fully support Hizbollah.

It took Europeans two World Wars to figure out that the wars they’ve been engaging in for centuries were not really all that helpful. It seems that tens of millions had to die in a cumulative span of ten years for them to figure that one out.
And it’s not like people learn from others’ mistakes. Check your history books. Look at the United States now. Can anyone say ROMAN EMPIRE? Do the words BRITISH EMPIRE mean anything to you? They should. If not, go back to those textbooks. (As a former teacher, I can gladly point out some. Don’t worry! They’re written by westerners and are fully neo-con approved.)

Now, it is obvious that this region has to pass by a level of suffering and pain and death and all that that is sufficient in size and magnitude to have people change the way business has been carried out. Who knows what might occur? The Palestinian people may be wiped out. Or Syria. Or Egypt for that matter. Maybe Israel will shrink in size, or move to Uganda or Argentina like they orginially wanted to. Who knows?

The process has to take place though, there’s no doubt about it. That’s why I do not lament the actions of Hizbollah under Hassan Nasrallah’s leadership. If it had to happen, and the man obviously figured that out, he might as well be ready for it.

I read about people saying: Israel won! or Hizbollah won! or None of the two won and the Lebanese people lost! etc. Now, while not attempting to belittle the political/military/economic analysis and studies some of those people went through to reach a conclusion, I am sincerely advising them to let it go.

Only Israel and Hizbollah know who won. It is in my opinion that the winner here is the person who achieved their desired objectives. Hell, maybe they both won!

Now, let’s not be silly and suppose for one instance that their declaration of supposed desired objectives over the news media should be the measure of how well they did. I’m not saying don’t use that information… by all means do. I personally hope that the people in charge of countries these days, those who have to make such decisions, are not dull enough or stupid enough to make public their strategic (and/or tactical) objectives in such a war. I don’t see a reason why they have to make them public at all.

I would say that it’s quite obvious that they don’t. Judging how Israel wanted to first rescue the two soldiers (that failed). Annihalate or eradicate or eliminate some other -ate Hizbollah forces (failed again). Then they will reduce Hizbollah’s capacity (sorry!). Then came the buffer zone to the Litany (Oops!). The buffer zone shrunk (Not quite there still!). They then wanted to get to the Litany again but those evil men at the UN saved Hizbollah from the major offensive that was going involve 30,000 BAD ASS Israeli soldiers (Can’t quite judge there, can I. Damn the UN! Damn them!). This is, of course, according to their publicized statements made by Olmert or some other Military/Government official.

I started grinning the moment they came up with the “Litany River” objective.

Much like Big Pharoah grinned at our Arab ignorance (Neo-Cons click gleefully).

End of the day? Hizbollah is satisfied with what they did.

I’m satisfied with Nasrallah comments and statements. The war is over, they pledged to help the people with money from “Bad Ahmedinajad Dude” (BAD).

More Iranian influence in the region. Why not? United States in Iraq. Iran in Lebanon. Maybe they’ll keep playing Leap Frog (or over and under Relays) until they get to the continental United States.

Sorry Mr. & Mrs. NeoCon, your child’s school-mates don’t like to be beaten up in the playground. I’m afraid they’re fighting back.

I wonder who’ll get to keep Antarctica?

 

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